Could 2023 be the year of the Green Swan?
‘Green Swans move us exponentially towards where we want to go’ according to John Elkington
If we are all being honest, at some point in 2022, I imagine that we all felt like ‘rabbits caught in car headlights’. Just as we exit lockdown, along comes a war and a litany of fast-moving changes that stressed the global system, not to mention our own human nervous systems!
In fact, 2022 was so tumultuous, the Collins English Dictionary made ‘permacrisis’ their word of the year and this has been added to the dictionary. The definition of permacrisis is ‘An extended period of instability and insecurity, especially one resulting from a series of catastrophic events.’ In my view, that describes 2022 perfectly!
This permacrisis certainly derailed the expected recovery. We have had to adjust to steep increases in energy prices, high inflation and rising interest rates which combined have nudged teetering economies to the edge of a recession far earlier than anticipated. Particularly in Europe. The US, with less of an energy crisis, is expected to feel a gentle bite of recession as opposed to Europe where it is expected to hurt a lot more.
And all of us are hoping for a really mild winter. The rising cost of power alone is challenging, to say the least.
With the permacrisis, 2022 was what Nassim Nicolas Taleb defines as characterised by ‘black swan events’.
A black swan is an unexpected and unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.
In our opinion, COVID and the war in Ukraine are black swan events.
According to investopedia: Black Swan in the Stock Market: What Is It, With Examples and History
A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences.
It cannot be predicted beforehand, though, after the fact, many falsely claim it should have been predictable.
Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy by negatively impacting markets and investments, but even the use of robust modelling cannot prevent a black swan event.
Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.
After these stressful and unpredictable black swan events, could 2023 be the year for the ‘Green Swan’ for the print industry?
Why?
According to our research, which underlined our decision to re-launch EcoPrint, improving sustainable performance has not become an ethical 'should do' but a strategic 'must do’. Seriously, if the print industry has not got a proper grip on it then we are well behind the curve.
The biggest brands in the world are fully immersed in sustainability and fully committed to their net-zero targets. So if they are committed, they will want to work with other committed companies. And this does not even factor in inevitable government legislation which will push us to change whether we want to or not!
Some of the largest brands in the world are saying some very clear and committed things. Surely, we should take note! Here are just two powerful words of commitment from leading brands for sustainability!
“At P&G, environmental sustainability is embedded in how we do business. We have a responsibility to make the world better. P&G is committed to positively impacting our homes, our communities, and our planet - especially in the areas of Climate, Forestry, Water and Packaging."
VIRGINIE HELIAS - CHIEF SUSTAINABILITY OFFICER, P&G
"Whilst other companies have committed to net zero by 2050, Nestlé has set two interim priorities of reducing emissions by 20% by 2025, by 50% by 2030, and ultimately to move to net zero by 2050. Crucially, these targets will be certified annually by independent third parties."
MARK SCHNEIDER - CEO, NESTLÉ
What does a Green Swan Event mean?
John Elkington is the author of the book, ‘Green Swans, the coming boom of regenerative capitalism’. If Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Black Swans” are problems that can take us exponentially toward breakdown, then, according to Elkington, “Green Swans are solutions that take us exponentially toward a breakthrough. The success—and survival—of humanity now depends on how we rein in the first and accelerate the second.” Green Swans draws on Elkington’s firsthand experience in some of the world’s best-known boardrooms and C-suites. Using case studies, real-world examples, and profiles on emergent technologies, Elkington shows how the weirdest “Ugly Ducklings” of today’s world may turn into tomorrow’s world-saving Green Swans.
A green swan is a solution to a problem that is predictable, understandable and undeniable. And that it is a problem worth solving. Climate change is a green swan. Why is climate change a green swan event? We have all had warnings of climate change since the 1970s. And since the 1970’s there is a veritable mountain range of evidence proving this is a very real problem. Change may have been slow but there are strong signs this is changing.
As Elkington says himself, ‘Green swans take us exponentially where we do want to go. Black swans on the other hand take us where we do not want to go. They make things which seem impossible today, seem possible tomorrow.
There is no doubt that sustainability is back on the agenda, firmly implanted as a central pillar for the future of brands and retailers. That should signal to us all that if we serve these people, we ought to be changing quickly, not to mention that climate change which was never perhaps considered a pressing concern, is now widely accepted as a considerable crisis, and one, including the print industry, needs to take far more seriously.
So 2023 could be a year for the Green Swan in the print sector! But to a large extent, this depends on our own actions and whether we want it to be. Anyone involved in print who has an interest in and concern about the environment is welcome to be a part of EcoPrint Summit. We will be sure to focus on the key issues, provide help and learn to generate an impact that is positive for the environment and we hope you can join us.
For more information, contact Marcus Timson